Rain, rain and potty training

It's been raining a lot lately here in the Bay Area the past week. It's been raining all day today. I really like the rain and if I didn't have kids I would probably be out dancing in the rain. Miriam might like dancing in the rain, but Isaac would scream bloody murder.

I figured that rain would prevent me from taking Miriam outside much I would try to do something productive with her indoors. . . . . potty training. I helped to potty train an autistic preschooler when I was in college so I figured this would be a snap. Miriam has actually done pretty well, but I think all the books that claim you can potty train your child in just one day are full of it. Miriam has no problem going "pee pee" in the potty, especially since she gets M&Ms when she goes. She just doesn't always tell me when she needs to go. Good thing Huggies invented pull-ups.

Today we had regional conference. It was broadcast to our building. There were a lot of good messages. One that stuck out in my mind (probably because it was "meant" for me) was what Elder Wickman said about living in California. He talked about how bad things have happened or are happening here in California, but that doesn't mean the saints should just pick up and leave. That seemed to be the theme of the conference. Building Zion where one is. My husband had to kind of poke me about this. I reminded him that living somewhere and trying to make the most of it doesn't mean I have to like the place I'm living.

I have to be honest, California has some really cool places to visit. Key word here: VISIT. I really don't like a lot of aspects of living here. I don't want to raise my family in the Bay Area. I've heard a lot of people talk about how wonderful San Francisco is. I've visited San Fran twice. It's a pretty city and a good place to visit. What most people don't understand is that San Francisco isn't all of the Bay Area. There are a lot of nice places to live here, but they are really expensive and most of the schools here are gang infested so even if we were to find a nice place to live the chances of us being near really good schools is slim.

I've realized how lucky I was to grow up in Centerville. I know that Utah has it's issues, but when I was growing up Utah was a really nice place. People here in California have such low standards sometimes. I thought that maybe I was really picky when it came to housing, schools, quality service, etc. I think it's more that I grew up in an area where people took care of their houses, I had good teachers in public schools, and most of the people I interacted with when it came to service were pretty happy, which is defnitely not the case here.

This week I need to start de-junking my house. We will be moving in about a month and I'm determined to only box up and take what we use, will use, and have used in the past 2 years. It's too bad any time I start de-junking things Miriam finds some object to get attached to. Two-year-olds are so funny sometimes.

Bailouts: Recursive Loop Spending

This post is inspired by a challenge from Stewart Feil, who gave me simply the title and wanted to see what I would write when I looked at it.

Bailouts are more like the inadvertent governmental way of cornering markets, making the government the 'only' market for something. This happens because once the government starts buying something (shares in a company above price, long end of the treasury curve, etc.), everyone will essentially hold out to sell to the government, so as to get the "screw the taxpayer" price. Bailouts also have the effect on the receivers of holding risky behavior in esteem, and the effect on the rest of the market of increasing mistrust.

One bailout begets another; or, at least it does if you don't realize your philosophy completely sucks, and that you can't out-maneuver mathematics. It softens, widens and deepens the collapse of debt default into a down-trending, see-saw shape. The default has to happen to relieve the exponential growth in debt, but bailouts distort and prolong the process. They introduce mistrust in the market environment, destroying the meaning of prices. Many groups (from the porn industry, to autos, to homebuilders, to banks) demand a bailout, and everyone else waits to buy because they don't know who is going to get favored next. Bailouts ultimately drag out the eventual re-establishment of a solid bottom, which is necessary for true, proper linear economic growth from real production.

The other problem with bailouts is that, to be blunt, it's like trying to treat a burn victim with a blowtorch. We have a huge debt problem. Debt is defaulting, causing total money/credit to contract (read: deflation) back to sustainable levels. This *must* happen, because banks and the Fed serially blew bubbles in the market to just kick the can down the road, and the can was getting bigger, and bigger. Bailouts of necessity require an increase in debt or a decrease in savings, which is precisely the problem that got us here in the first place. And, once you have a few patrons addicted to debt, they don't get broken of the habit without some really bad hangovers, and have to fall on their face a few times before they realize you are serious about cutting them loose. This is as true of corporations as it is of individual people. The longer you go giving out bailouts, the harder it will be to cut off the freeloaders later, and so it goes until your hand is forced. In the meantime, you will have done yourself likely serious harm in terms of solvency. There is no "right amount" of capital to give out that will turn a recession around; companies, and people, are black holes when it comes to money. Those who manage it well don't need bailouts, even when they are bankrupt, and those who don't will never manage it well even if they get bailed out. What's even worse, is the government is bailing firms out with *our* money, not theirs. See the following for a funny, but accurate depiction of what is going on:

http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/Fannie.jpg

Recursive bailouts are predicated on the people who have the power to give the money out either ignoring, or not understanding these simple truths. The average person, and thus the average company, is not so unlike a homeless guy that you give $4 million. Generally speaking, he'll blow it in no time and not be better off in the long run. If you think that means you just didn't give him enough, then you are throwing good money after bad and are a complete fool.

The parallels to what our government is doing are quite obvious.

Sick of sickness

This week our whole family has had to deal with sickness. First Miriam came down with a cold, then I got it, then Isaac, and yesterday Mike succumb to the nasty virus. Being home sick with two sick kids has been a pain. I barely get enough sleep as it is and then to be getting up in the night made it really hard. Poor Mike has had to deal with a very grumpy wife.

I usually don't let Miriam watch much TV, but this past week we probably watched The Little Mermaid and Curious George like 3 times each. I'm hoping the weather is good this week so we can get out and about. I'm really sick of being inside for days at a time. I was glad to go to church today with Miriam because that meant I got to leave the house! :)

Since we've been sick this week we haven't done anything really interesting. Valentine's Day is coming up and so is my birthday. We'll see if Mike remembers to get me anything for either of those days.

Maybe I'll have something interesting to write later this week. I'm posting a little video clip of Miriam and Isaac having fun despite being sick.

States' Rights

Over the last 100 years or so, we have seen a steady slide away from Constitutional principles in the United States toward a huge, bloated, powerful central government. I need to write up a post some day on the government's handling (and complicity) in the Great Depression as an example of what groundwork was laid, but suffice it to say most government programs and legislation we have these days have no basis in the US Constitution whatsoever.

But, we have some legislators that are starting to get brave. This is a wonderful sign that the pressure buildup is finally starting to make people motivated. Consider this house resolution in New Hampshire, to be voted on in a couple of days in committee:

New Hampshire to Vote on putting the federal government in its place

Please, please read this in its entirety. It is a wonder to behold. I really, really hope this is passed, and that other states follow suit as soon as possible. Here is a small snippet to get your toes wet with excitement:

That the Constitution of the United States, having delegated to Congress a power to punish treason, counterfeiting the securities and current coin of the United States, piracies, and felonies committed on the high seas, and offences against the law of nations, slavery, and no other crimes whatsoever; and it being true as a general principle, and one of the amendments to the Constitution having also declared, that “the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people,” therefore all acts of Congress which assume to create, define, or punish crimes, other than those so enumerated in the Constitution are altogether void, and of no force; and that the power to create, define, and punish such other crimes is reserved, and, of right, appertains solely and exclusively to the respective States, each within its own territory...

And another:

That any Act by the Congress of the United States, Executive Order of the President of the United States of America or Judicial Order by the Judicatories of the United States of America which assumes a power not delegated to the government of United States of America by the Constitution for the United States of America and which serves to diminish the liberty of the any of the several States or their citizens shall constitute a nullification of the Constitution for the United States of America by the government of the United States of America. Acts which would cause such a nullification include, but are not limited to:

I. Establishing martial law or a state of emergency within one of the States comprising the United States of America without the consent of the legislature of that State.

II. Requiring involuntary servitude, or governmental service other than a draft during a declared war, or pursuant to, or as an alternative to, incarceration after due process of law.

III. Requiring involuntary servitude or governmental service of persons under the age of 18 other than pursuant to, or as an alternative to, incarceration after due process of law.

IV. Surrendering any power delegated or not delegated to any corporation or foreign government.

V. Any act regarding religion; further limitations on freedom of political speech; or further limitations on freedom of the press.

VI. Further infringements on the right to keep and bear arms including prohibitions of type or quantity of arms or ammunition

A return to smaller, Constitutional government and less meddling in our markets would restore confidence, freedom, reduce debt, relieve the tax burden on individuals and businesses, and probably pull us out of our current recession (or, should I say, depression?) very quickly. More on that later. But the above resolution is rather self-explanatory, and stands on its own two feet. It takes a bold stance, even talking about nullification of the federal government if they overstep their bounds again. I think the last time our country talked about nullification was before the Civil War.

Update: Arizona seems to be following suit.

Update 2: Oklahoma has also already done this, despite a media blackout.

Update 3: And, at least one more brewing. This one is from Missouri, and is more limited, stating Constitutional limits urging the federal government to reject FOCA legislation (and FOCA is a horrid bill). There are also rumblings of similar happenings in Montana, and news from the last decade of Kansas and Texas making similar declarations.

Update 4: Now they're rolling in! Washington State is joining the fray, as is Montana, and Michigan (see House concurrent resolution 4).

New Year's Resolution

Since many of my family and friends have blogs I decided to try doing this whole blog thing. I actually had a New Year's resolution to blog regularly. Well, I'm a month late, but better late than never eh?

I'm usually pretty good at journal writing, but I'm pretty bad at emailing people and giving updates on my life. I'm sure some of my family and friends will like reading this blog because I will eventually post pictures. Since my husband and I share this blog there will probably be quite a mix of posts.

I guess I'll start by giving a brief update on events in our family. Mike and I currently live in Hercules, CA and are going to have to move because our landlord wants to unload the house. Luckily we're just moving across town. The house is bigger and has a yard, but it's going to cost quite a bit more. It's owned by a woman who used to be in our ward. One advantage of renting the house is that the contract is month-to-month (also a reason the rent is higher).

The lease on the house we're currently in ends in March and we were planning on going month-to-month in order to take our time and find a house to buy. House prices here are still pretty high, but still dropping so we don't really want to buy now because 1) I doubt we'd get approved for a loan 2) We don't want to be losing value in a house we buy now because prices are still dropping and 3) We haven't found a place that we really like. I personally don't want to buy a house in the Bay Area because I don't want to stay here for an extended period of time. I've met a lot of really good people here, but I really don't want to raise my children here. Lucky for me my children are still pretty young.

Miriam is almost 2 1/2. We've half-heartedly started potty training. She was doing well for a while and then all of a sudden decided she didn't want to do what we want her to. She's really funny though. She talks all of the time and is always insisting that she do everything. She's usually pretty good with Isaac, although she thinks that all of her toys are hers and all of Isaac's toys are hers.

Isaac is about 8 1/2 months old. He's crawling really well. He pulls himself up to a stand and walks next to the couch. The other day we had him hold on to a train that Miriam inherited. It's one of those Thomas the Tank engines that children can scoot around on and it has all sorts of buttons to push that make train sounds. Anyway, we had Isaac hold on to the train and he started pushing it and walking with it. He tips the train over sometimes, but it might end up being a good thing for him to use to practice walking.

Mike is really busy at work. His company hit a rough patch a few weeks ago, but there are other projects that they are getting awarded, so things are looking good. We think Mike's job is pretty safe, but we're still going to save money just in case.

I have been busy with the kids and trying to de-junk the house. I'm trying to get into an exercise routine and a routine with the kids so I can have some time to myself. I'm thinking about signing up for a class so that my brain doesn't go to mush.

Last week was Mike's birthday. His parents came down to babysit so we could go to dinner. They ended up getting here a little late so all we got to do was go to dinner. It was nice to go somewhere without kids. It had been a long time since we had been on a date. Hopefully after we move we'll be able to find a babysitter and go on more dates.

Anyway, I have realized that this is a very long winded entry. Hopefully I will get in the habit of doing this and post some pictures.